考虑人群拥堵的疏散出口选择行为研究及建模

Study on exit choice behavior in evacuation considering crowd congestion and its modeling

出口选择是疏散过程中最重要和复杂的决策行为之一,受到空间结构、人群分布和行人认知等多方面因素的影响,为了使疏散仿真能够合理地模拟出行人的寻路和逃生过程,提出了考虑人群拥堵的出口选择模型。该模型基于多元Logit离散选择模型,考虑到影响个体疏散时间的因素以及对不同出口类型的偏好。研究发现个体的疏散时间随着拥堵人群位置的不同而有所差异,从而以决策者而不是出口的角度定义了一个计数区域来估计影响决策者排队时间的人数。并且研究出口重新选择的触发条件和程序。将出口选择模型和程序引入Building EXODUS软件进行疏散仿真,通过对比显示,仿真结果更符合真实情况,特别是在具有障碍物和人群分布不均匀的场景中更显优势。

The exit choice is one of the most important and complex decision-making behavior in the evacuation process,and it can be affected by many factors such as spatial structure,crowd distribution and pedestrian cognition. In order to enable the evacuation simulation to simulate the pathfinding and escape process of pedestrian more reasonably,an exit choice model considering crowd congestion was presented. The model is based on multinomial Logit discrete choice model with the consideration of the factors influencing individual evacuation time and the preferences of different exit types. It showed that the individual evacuation time were different with the different locations of crowd congestion,so a counting area was defined from the perspective of decision maker instead of exit for estimating the number of people which has a direct effect on the queuing time of decision maker,and the trigger condition and procedure of exit reselection were studied. The exit choice model and procedure were introduced into the software Building EXODUS to carry out evacuation simulation,and the simulation results were more coincident with the reality through comparison,especially for the scenarios with obstacles and non-uniform pedestrian distribution.