广西边境贸易发展影响因素的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis of the Influential Factors of Guangxi Border Trade Development

边境贸易作为广西对外贸易的一种重要方式,对广西建设开放型经济起着不可替代的作用。近10年来,广西边境贸易取得长足发展,不仅规模逐步扩大,而且形式日益多样化,商品结构逐步优化,主体日渐扩大。通过实证分析,测度影响广西边境贸易发展的最重要因素,表明建立的计量模型具有很高的拟合度,通过协整检验,不存在伪回归的问题,证明汇率对广西边境贸易发展的影响最大。其他重要因素包括工业发展水平、基础设施建设、旅游业发展状况,以及加工贸易发展情况等。基于此,提出要通过推动边境加工贸易发展,完善基础设施,加强对边境贸易企业和边民开拓市场的支持和服务,大力发展现代服务业等措施来促进和推动广西边境贸易在新时期的转型升级。

Border trade, as a key way of foreign trade in Guangxi, plays an unreplacable roles in construction of the open economy in Guangxi. In the past decades, Guangxi has made substantial progress in border trade with scale gradually expanded, modes increasingly diversified, commodity composition gradually optimized and the subject increasingly enlarged. An empirical analysis is conducted on measurement of the influential factors of Guangxi border trade development. The result shows high fitting degree of measurement model and the greatest impact of exchange rate on Guangxi border trade development. Accordingly, the article proposes that transformation and upgrading of Guangxi border trade in the new era should be promoted through promotion of border processing trade development, improvement of infrastructure, intensification of the support and service for border trade companies and border inhabitants＇ market expanson and vigorous development of modern service industry.