气候变化对我国南方人工林地上生物量影响的模拟研究--以会同生态站磨哨实验林场为例

Simulation study on the effects of climate change on aboveground biomass of plantation in southern China:Taking Moshao forest farm in Huitong Ecological Station as an example

全球气候变暖对陆地生态系统尤其是森林生态系统有着重要的影响,气温升高、辐射强迫的增强将显著改变森林生态系统的结构和功能.南方人工林作为我国森林的重要组成部分,对气候变化的响应日益强烈.为了探究未来气候情景下我国南方人工林对气候变化的响应,降低未来气候变化对人工林可能带来的损失,本研究采用3种最新的气候情景—典型浓度排放路径情景(RCP2.6情景、RCP4.5情景、RCP8.5情景)预估数据,应用生态系统过程模型Pn ET-Ⅱ和空间直观景观模型LANDIS-Ⅱ模拟2014—2094年间湖南省会同森林生态实验站磨哨实验林场森林的地表净初级生产力(ANPP)、物种建立可能性(SEP)和地上生物量的变化.结果表明:不同森林类型的SEP和ANPP对气候变化的响应有明显的差异,各森林类型对气候变化的响应程度表现为:对于SEP,在RCP2.6和RCP4.5情景下,人工针叶林>天然阔叶林>人工阔叶林;在RCP8.5情景下,天然阔叶林>人工阔叶林>人工针叶林.对于ANPP,在RCP2.6情景下,人工阔叶林>天然阔叶林>人工针叶林;在RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下,天然阔叶林>人工阔叶林>人工针叶林.人工针叶林的地上生物量在2050年左右开始下降,天然阔叶林和人工阔叶林整体呈现上升趋势.2014—2094年,研究区地上总生物量在不同气候情景下增加幅度不同,RCP2.6情景下增加了68.2%,RCP4.5情景下增加了79.3%,RCP8.5情景下增加了72.6%.3种情景下的总地上生物量大小排序为:RCP4.5>RCP8.5>RCP2.6.我们认为,适当的增温将有助于未来研究区森林总地上生物量的积累,但过度的增温也可能会阻碍森林的生产和生态功能的持续发展.

Global climate warming has significant effect on territorial ecosystem,especially on forest ecosystem.The increase in temperature and radiative forcing will significantly alter the structure and function of forest ecosystem.The southern plantation is an important part of forests in China,its response to climate change is getting more and more intense.In order to explore the responses of southern plantation to climate change under future climate scenarios and to reduce the losses that might be caused by climate change,we used climatic estimated data under three new emission scenarios,representative concentration pathways（RCPs） scenarios（RCP2.6 scenario,RCP4.5 scenario,and RCP8.5 scenario）.We used the spatially dynamic forest landscape model LANDIS-Ⅱ,coupled with a forest ecosystem process model Pn ET-Ⅱ,to simulate the impact of climate change on aboveground net primary production（ANPP）,species’ establishment probability（SEP） and aboveground biomass of Moshao forest farm in Huitong Ecological Station,which located in Hunan Province during the period of 2014-2094.The results showed that there were obvious differences in SEP and ANPP among different forest types under changing climate.The degrees of response of SEP to climate change for different forest types were shown as：under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5,artificial coniferous forest 〉 natural broadleaved forest 〉 artificial broadleaved forest.Under RCP8.5,natural broadleaved forest〉artificial broadleaved forest 〉artificial coniferous forest.The degrees of response of ANPP to climate change for different forest types were shown as：under RCP2.6,artificial broadleaved forest〉 natural broadleaved forest 〉 artificial coniferous forest.Under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5,natural broadleaved forest〉artificial broadleaved forest〉artificial coniferous forest.The aboveground biomass of the artificial coniferous forest would decline at about 2050,but the natural broadleaved forest and artificial broadleaved forest showed a rising trend in general.During the period of 2014-2094,the total aboveground biomass under RCP2.6,RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios increased by68.2%,79.3% and 72.6%,respectively.The total aboveground biomass under various climatic scenarios sort as：RCP4.5 〉 RCP8.5 〉 RCP2.6.We thought that an appropriate temperature might be beneficial to the biomass accumulation in this study area.However,overextended temperature might hinder the sustainable development of forest production and ecological function.