基于灾害风险综合指标的陕西省农业干旱时空特征

Spatio-temporal characteristics of agricultural drought in Shaanxi Province,China based on integrated disaster risk index

随着气候变化,农业干旱直接威胁粮食安全.本文以陕西省为研究对象,基于自然灾害风险理论,综合考虑干旱灾害影响因素,从致灾因子的危险性、承灾体的暴露性、环境的脆弱性和地区的抗旱能力4个风险要素选取指标,采用层次分析法确定指标权重,构建自然灾害风险综合指标,分析2009—2013年陕西省农业干旱时空特征.结果表明:研究期间,陕北地区农业干旱风险略呈下降趋势;陕南地区呈急剧升高态势,以商洛市为甚;关中地区基本稳定,以咸阳市最高、西安市最低.陕西省农业干旱风险大体呈现从南向北逐渐递增现象.

With the change of climate,agricultural drought has directly threatened the food security.Based on the natural disaster risk theory,we analyzed the spatial and temporal characteristics of agricultural drought in Shanxi Province from 2009 to 2013.Four risk factors（hazard,exposure,vulnerability,and drought resistance ability） were selected with the consideration of influence factors of drought disasters.Subsequently,the index weight was determined by the analytic hierarchy process（AHP） and the aggregative indicator of natural disaster risk was established.The results showed that during the study period,the agricultural drought risk slightly declined in the northern Shaanxi,but increased sharply in the southern Shaanxi,especially in Shangluo City.While for the central part of Shaanxi Province,it maintained good stability,which was the highest in Xianyang City and the lowest in Xi’an City.Generally,the agricultural drought risk in Shaanxi Province gradually increased from south to north.