公共教育投入结构、延迟效应与经济增长——基于面板分位数模型的研究

Government Expenditure Structure on Education,Delay Effect and Economic Growth

在经济发展过程中,教育投入发挥着重要的助推作用。基于具有代表性的18国数据,建立当期和含滞后项的面板分位数模型可以有效地刻画公共教育投入结构与经济增长之间的非线性关系及其中的延迟效应。研究发现,中等和高等教育投入对经济增长的贡献具有延迟效应,而且随着经济水平的提高,滞后二期的高等教育经费占政府教育支出比重和滞后三期的中等教育经费占政府教育支出比重对人均GDP的正向影响逐渐增强。当期初等教育经费占政府教育支出比重对经济水平的提高具有明显的负向作用;当期高等教育经费占政府教育支出比重则对经济水平的提高具有明显的正向作用。

In the process of economic growth,educational investment plays an important boosting effect. Based on the representative data of 18 countries,to build two panel quantile models in which the current period variables and lagged variables are utilized to be independent variables respectively,could efficiently analyze the non-linear relationship and the delay effect between government expenditure structure on education and economic growth. The results show that there is delay effect of expenditure on secondary and tertiary education on economic growth. What is more,accompanied with the improvement of economic level,the effect of the two years lagged expenditure on tertiary education and three years lagged expenditure of government expenditure on secondary education on GDP per capita is increasing. The current period expenditure of government expenditure on primary education has negative influence on economic growth;the current period expenditure of government expenditure on tertiary education has positive influence on economic growth.