非洲工业化战略与中非工业化合作战略思考

Rethinking on Africa's Industrialization Strategy and Sino-African Industrialization Cooperation Strategy

中非工业化合作目前正成为中非合作的新突破口和着力点,但中国要想真正帮助非洲推进工业化,首先应了解非洲对自身工业化战略的构想。近期面世的此类构想主要有非盟公布的《2063年议程》,联合国非经委公布的《转型中的非洲工业政策》,埃塞俄比亚学者阿尔卡贝发表的学术专著《非洲制造:埃塞俄比亚的产业政策》。中国还应理解非洲推进工业化面临的一系列难题,如工业化中的产业布局问题,生产规模化与市场碎片化难题,经济多元化与资源依赖症难题,工业化模式与路径选择难题。这些难题首先要靠非洲国家自己破解,同时也需要中国在启动中非工业化合作计划时高度重视。中国政府提出的中非"十大合作计划"是一项系统工程,中非工业化合作计划只是其中比较重要的组成部分,这一计划能否顺利推进,还有赖于其他九项计划能否同步顺利推进。中国现将非洲作为国际产能合作的优先对象,但不应指望通过向非洲转移中国过剩产能实现去产能任务,还应防止中国企业扎堆进入少数几个产能合作示范国。中国也应注重中非产能合作进程中融资渠道的拓展,特别是挖掘非洲自身融资潜力。非洲工业化说到底是非洲人自己的工业化,非洲能不能实现工业化,关键还要看非洲人自己的努力。

Sino -African industrialization cooperation is currently becoming a new impetus and focus for China - Africa cooperation. In order to help Africa push forward its industrialization drive, China should firstly have some insights into Africa＇ s industrialization visions or blueprints, for which the following documents published recently can be represented： AU＇s Agenda 2063, UNECA＇s Transformative Industrial Policy for Africa, and Arkebe Oqubay＇ s Made in Africa： Industrial Policy in Ethiopia. China also need to understand the conundrums facing Africa＇s industrialization, such as industrial layout issues, contradiction between mass production and fragmented market, conflict between economic diversification and resources dependency, and the difficulty of choosing industrialization model and path. To solve the conundrums, Africa should take initiative and China also should pay much attention to them when the Industrialization Cooperation Plan is put into practice. The Ten China -Africa Cooperation Plans put forward by Chinese government should be regarded as a systematic project, whose success will depends on smooth progress of other plans. Africa has been taken as a priority target for international production capacity cooperation, but China shouldn＇t expect to complete the task of reducing the excess capacity by transferring them to Africa. Although several African countries have been listed as demonstration and pioneering countries for such cooperation, precautions should be taken so as to avoid flooding entry by too more Chinese enterprises. China should also attach much weight to broadening the financing channels, especially the financial potential from the continent itself.