基于DSGE模型的中国国家创新体系发展的仿真与预测

Simulation and Prediction of the Development of China's National Innovation System based on the DSGE Model

基于国家创新体系理论(六部门结构理论、资源-需求理论、三元驱动理论、持续创新理论等),以中国为例,引入动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型方法,建立企业、高校(包括科研院所)、政府、金融、中介和国外六部门的国家创新体系行为模型组,构建预期效用函数和拉格朗日函数,进而构建由26个模型组成的国家创新体系的DSGE模型体系,并运用贝叶斯方法、计量经济学方法等进行参数估计,并在模拟仿真和政策实验的基础上,预测中国到2025年的国家创新体系主要状态变量和控制变量的发展目标,从而为国家中长期创新政策体系等的制定提供依据。

Based on the National Innovation System（NIS）theory（Six-sector structural theory,ResourceDemand theory,Ternary drive theory,Sustainable innovation theory and etc.）,taking China as an example,this paper introduces the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium（DSGE）model and builds a behavioral model set for the NIS within its six sectors：enterprises,universities（including scientific research institutions）,governments,financial sectors,intermediary agents,as well as foreign sectors;and establishes the expected utility function and Lagrange function.Then it constructs a DSGE model system for the NIS,which consists of 26 models.Moreover,by adopting Bayes method,econometric method and so forth,the parameters are estimated.In addition,on the basis of analogue simulation and policy experiment,this paper predicts the development goals of the main status and control variables within China＇s NIS by 2025,thereby,provides the basis for the establishment of China＇s medium long-term innovation policy system.