基于方法改进后的中国对外贸易隐含能测算

Embodied energy calculation of China's foreign trade based on the improved method

自2001年起中国成为能源净进口国,伴随着能源贸易逆差的持续扩大,国际社会上不断出现对中国大量进口能源的各种指责。实际上中国进口的能源不仅用于自身的消耗,而且更多的是用于生产和出口大量优质的商品以满足国外消费者的需求。因此明确中国对外贸易中的能源消耗水平就成为准确认识中国真实能源消耗水平的关键。与传统能源消耗水平的测算方法不同,隐含能概念的引入使得对一国最终商品完整生产过程中的能源消耗测算更为准确。而在隐含能的测算过程中,测算的关键据是一国的投入产出表数据。本文在总结已有研究的基础上对中国隐含能的测算方法进行了改进。以中国官方公布的中国投入产出表为基础,在测算出口时使用"按固定比例进行分配"法;而在测算进口时放弃使用单一国家或部分国家加权方法计算进口能耗系数的方法,使用由本文提出的将进口国分为发达国家和发展中国家两类的方法测算能耗系数,并以此为基础重新测算了中国的进出口隐含能和贸易隐含能净值。通过测算不仅使中国贸易隐含能的结果得到进一步的精确,而且还深入到行业内部,对具体行业的隐含能状况进行了分析。测算发现中国在整个贸易过程中实际处于隐含能源的"净输出"状态,而造成逆差的行业主要是采掘和加工业、其他行业、其他工业等。并以此为基础,提出今后中国对于上述这些隐含能净值逆差行业要在保持已有贸易模式的前提下对其就继续予以扶持和鼓励;而对于隐含能净值为顺差的行业则要把工作的重点放在如何提高内部技术平和降低能耗上。通过降低出口隐含能水平和增加进口隐含能的方式来实现贸易隐含能收支的均衡。

With the continued expansion of the energy trade deficit, China has been a net importer of energy since 2001, in which the increasing large amount of energy import received various accusations. In fact, China＇ s imported energy not only meets her own consumption demand, but also mainly fulfills the demand of producing and exporting high quality products to the foreign markets. Therefore, it is critical to identify real energy consumption in China＇ s foreign trade. Different from the traditional calculation method of energy consumption, the introduction of embodied energy concept makes the calculation of energy consumption in the whole production process of a country＇ s final goods more accurate. In the procession of embodied energy calculation, the key is a country＇ s input and output table data. On the basis of summarizing the existing research, this paper improves the calculation method of embodied energy in China. This paper uses China＇ s IO table and applies the ＇ fixed proportion＇ approach to calculate the export embodied energy. Instead of using a country＇ s or some countries＇ weighted method, this paper proposes the developed-developing countries division approach to calculate the import embodied energy coefficients, in which the import and export implicit energy and trade embodied energy are estimated. This study more accuratly measures China＇ s trade embodied energy at the nation, industry, and intra-industry levels. The result shows that China is in the＂ net output＂ of the embodied energy in the whole process of trade, and the trade deficit is mainly caused by mining and processing industry, other sectors and other industries. On this basis, China should maintain existing trade model, continue to support and encourage those industries which have the embodied energy net deficit, improve the internal technical level and reduce energy consumption of those industries which have the embodied energy net surplus. Reducing the export embodied energy and increasing the embodied energy of imports can achieve the balance of trade embodied balance.