历史街区慢行交通分担量的博弈预测方法

Share Amount Prediction Method of Slow Transportation in Historical District Based on Non-cooperation Game

通过广义费用的方法对影响出行方式选择的各种因素统一量化,建立了基于广义利润最大化的历史街区出行方式完全信息动态博弈模型。从各种影响因素及指标方面对街区内步行、自行车、公交、小汽车等出行方式进行竞争博弈,通过迭代求模型的Nash均衡解预测历史街区内部慢行交通的最优分担量;并以郑州市书院街历史街区为例对模型进行了验证。研究结果表明:未来一段时间内,书院街历史街区内部步行和自行车的分担量将分别有2.86%和1.23%的增长,慢行交通整体所占的比重将会有4.09%的增长率,街区内慢行交通将分担70%左右的出行量;基于广义利润最大化的历史街区出行方式动态博弈模型,能够跳出常规交通预测的思路,通过广义费用对影响各种出行方式选择的不确定性影响因素进行统一量化分析,可对未来交通量的变化提供准确客观的预测结果。

The factors that affect the choice of travel mode were quantified by using the generalized cost method,and the complete information dynamic game model of historical district travel modes based on the generalized profit maximization was established.The pedestrian walk,bike,bus,car and other travel ways were competed in the game from various influence factors and indexes.And then,the optimal share amount of the slow traffic in the historic district was predicated through the Nash equilibrium of the model by iteration.Meanwhile,the historical district of Zhengzhou,Shuyuan Street,was taken as an example to verify the model.The results show that in future,the optimal share amount of walking and cycling（electric vehicles）travel will be increased by 2.86%and 1.23%respectively in a certain period,the whole slow traffic will have a growth rate of 4.09%,and the slow traffic in the street will share about 70% of the traffic.Based on the dynamic game model of historical block travel mode with generalized profit maximization,the idea of conventional traffic prediction can be got rid of.Accurate and objectiveprediction results can be provided for the change of traffic volume in the future through unified quantitative analysis of the influence factors on the uncertainty of the choice of various travel modes by the generalized cost.