存量债务置换与地方政府债务风险管理

Debt Replacement and Local Government Debt Risk Management

作为解决地方政府债务问题的重要选择,存量债务置换被寄予厚望。结合已经实施的多批置换计划,本文发现,债务置换只是延迟了债务偿付时间,尽管短期效果斐然,但长期内难以有效缓解地方债务问题及其对金融体系稳定的冲击;地方债务风险防范之策应当兼顾长期与短期政策,既要治标更需治本。因此,在依托短期政策解决当务之急的同时,我国还应当合理推进社会私人合作模式,并加强地方政府债务审计体系建设。

As an important choice to solve the local government debt problem, the debt replacement was placed high hopes. Combined with the several already implemented replacement plans, the study showed that debt replacement delayed debt repayment time, which shed a striking effect in the short term while hardly alleviated the local government debt risk and its impact on the financial stability in the long term. In fact, local government debt risk prevention should take into account both the long term and short term policy. Therefore, debt replacement could he used to address the urgent task, while policies such as promoting public private partnership, strengthening local government debt audit system should be employed in the long term.