财政政策扩张、纵向产业结构与中国产能利用率

Fiscal Expansion,Vertical Structure of Industries and Capacity Utilization Rate in China

估计我国产能利用率以及理解其背后的演化机理是化解当前产能过剩的前提。本文基于纵向产业结构的视角，剖析财政政策扩张对上下游部门产能利用率的影响及其作用机制。理论分析表明，政府投资支出扩张对不同部门的产能利用率具有显著的差异化影响，在促使上游企业产品价格上升，导致该部门产能扩张的同时，抑制了下游产业的产能利用率水平。伴随着财政政策的逐步淡出，下游产业的需求不足最终导致上游部门出现产能过剩，其产品价格持续下降。纵向产业结构在这一过程中发挥着十分显著的作用。基于我国1998Q1～2014Q4的宏观季度数据，本文采用结构方法分别对上下游部门在样本期内的产能利用率进行估计，从经验层面验证了纵向产业关联的显著性。反事实分析表明，财政政策与信贷因素是共同导致我国目前产能过剩的重要原因。逐步淘汰上游部门的过剩产能与着力激活下游部门的经济活力，两者双管齐下方为治理我国产能过剩的标本兼治之道。

Together with estimating the capacity utilization rate,understanding the generating mechanism why excessive manufacturing capacity happens is very important.This paper accomplishes these two goals based on the perspective of vertical structure of industries.Analysis based on DSGE model shows that fiscal expansion on investment has significantly divergent effects on different sectors.For upstream firms,fiscal expansion stimulates its capacity utilization,while depressing the one of downstream firms through pricing effects.Following the decaying of fiscal stimulation,the capacity utilization in upstream sector falls substantially.Empirical analysis does two things: the first one is to estimate the capacity utilization rate in China based on macro quarterly data from 1998Q1 to 2014Q4.The second is to examine the importance of fiscal policy by counterfactual analysis.We find that fiscal policy can explain large part in the dynamics of capacity utilization.To solve the overcapacity problem in China,the government should take actions in two ways simultaneously: on the one hand absorbing the excessive capacity in the upstream industries,and on the other hand activating the downstream industries.