绿色增长是影响官员晋升的主要因素么?——基于2003～2014年省级面板数据的经验研究

Is Green Growth the Main Factor That Affects Officials' Promotion? An Empirical Study Based on 2003～2014 Provincial Panel Data

近年来，随着资源环境的恶化，绿色增长变得越来越重要。地方官员对绿色增长有力的支持是实现可持续发展的重要保障，而晋升激励无疑是影响官员行为方式的重要因素。文章应用方向性距离函数，测度了2003～2014年间我国大陆31个省、自治区、直辖市的绿色全要素生产率并以此作为衡量区域绿色增长的核心指标，在此基础上通过面板probit模型实证分析了各省官员执政期间辖区GDP增长、绿色全要素生产率与官员职级晋升的内在联系。实证研究表明：十六届三中全会以来，就全国范围而言，GDP增长仍然显著影响省级官员晋升，而绿色增长对于官员的晋升影响并不显著；分地区而言，只有东部地区官员晋升受绿色增长影响较为显著，并且相较于GDP增长对官员晋升影响更为明显。

During recent years, as resources decrease and the environment deteriorates, green growth has become increasingly important. Local officials＇ support for green growth is vital for sustainable growth. Promotion is an incentive and undoubtedly affects the way officials act. In this study, directional distance function is used to calculate green total factor productivity of the 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government in China from 2003 through 2014 as the core indicator to measure green growth. Then empirical analysis of the relationship between GDP growth, green total factor productivity and officials＇ promotion is conducted based on the panel probit model with the following conclusions： In ＂general, officials＇ promotion has been significantly affected by their contribution to GDP growth but not green total factor productivity since the Third Plenary Session of the 16th Central Committee of the CPC. A further analysis by region indicates that only in eastern China, the influence of green total factor productivity on officials＇ promotion is significant and the influence is even more significant than that of GDP growth.