2种方法在贵州农业旱灾脆弱性评价中的比较

Comparison of two methods in the evaluation of agricultural drought vulnerability of Guizhou

农业旱灾脆弱性评价方法的选择对结果的准确度至关重要。文章以贵州省为例,从自然、社会、经济三个方面构建指标体系,采用定量分析评价法和可变模糊分析评价法对9个市(州)的农业旱灾脆弱性进行评价,并且以此为基础对2种评价方法进行了对比分析。研究结果表明:贵州整体上农业旱灾脆弱性严重,地区之间有差异;对于脆弱度等级的划分,2种评价方法测算的农业旱灾脆弱性等级差控制在±1范围内,地区脆弱性排名差异明显;2种方法评价结果的差异主要与2种方法对原始数据的无量纲化处理,数据处理的过程,所依据的理论差异有关,同时与模糊分析法指标划分的级别也有一定关系,2种方法的适用性在今后的研究中还需进一步验证。

The selection of assessment method in the evaluation of agricultural drought vulnerability is very important to the accuracy of the results. In this paper,taking Guizhou as an example,we evaluated the agricultural drought vulnerability of 9 cities from natural,social and economic aspects by using quantitative analysis and variable fuzzy analysis,and compared the two methods. The results show that,the overall agricultural drought vulnerability of Guizhou is serious,and there are differences between regions. For the determination of vulnerability degree,the difference of the two evaluation methods was within the range of ±1,and the ranking difference of different regions was obvious. Differences between the two methods mainly resulted from the differences in the original data dimensionless processing process,the basis of the theories,and the index division level of fuzzy analysis method. The applicability of the two methods needs further verification.