我国可耗竭能源资源最优开采模型研究

The Optimal Extraction Model of Exhaustible Energy Resources

可耗竭能源资源是我国经济社会可持续发展和国家安全的重要保障。综合考虑资源储量、技术进步、资源价格、开发成本、市场结构、政策等不确定性因素,以最终产品生产部门和资源供给部门收益最大化以及消费者效用最大化为目标,构建了考虑各部门同时最优的一体化模型,求解出稳态下可耗竭和可再生能源资源价格和产量的增长率,进行了数值模拟和敏感性分析。结果表明:技术进步是影响可耗竭和可再生能源资源价格和产量增长率变化的关键因素;最终产品生产部门规模报酬和跨期替代弹性影响可耗竭和可再生能源资源产量增长率;最终产品生产部门规模报酬不变,则可耗竭和可再生能源资源产量均无增长。据此,提出政策建议为:规范我国可耗竭能源资源价格和开采路径,应突破可耗竭能源资源勘探和开采技术;为实现节能目标,应提高我国最终产品生产部门的规模报酬;未来一段时间内,可耗竭能源资源价格会继续下跌,政府应提前做好战略部署,合理配置能源资源,推进企业转型升级速度。

Exhaustible Energy resources are an important guarantee of social sustainable economic development and national security.Considering influence factors,such as resources stock,technology progress,resource prices,costs,market structure,policy and so on,an integrated optimization model of each department is established to maximize revenue target of the productive sector and the energy supply sector,and to maximize utility of consumers,each variable rate is solved while the objective function achieving optimal at the same time,and the numerical simulation and sensitivity analysis are done.The results show：Technological progress is the key factor that affects the price and extraction growth rate of exhaustible and non-exhaustible energy resources;scale returns and inter-period substitution elasticity of the final productive sector influence the extraction growth rate of exhaustible and non-exhaustible energy resources;if scale returns of the final productive sector is unchanged,the extraction of exhaustible and non-exhaustible energy resources is unchanged.At last,policy recommendations in China are proposed：the technical progress should be broken through to regulate the price and extraction of energy resources.The scale return of the productive sector should beincreased in order to achieve energy saving targets.Within the next few years,the price of the exhaustible energy resources will continue to decline,the government should make a strategic plan in advance and allocate resources rationally,and promote the speed of transformation and upgrading in exhaustible energy resources enterprises.