地铁车站乘客疏散出口选择行为仿真建模

Simulation Modeling of Pedestrian Exit Selection in Evacuation Process of Rail Transit Station

针对地铁车站乘客疏散过程中的出口选择行为受到自身感知和判断能力的制约,且可能会根据当前位置和出口实时状况重新选择出口,提出一种出口动态选择模型,模型引入感知因子和判断系数反映乘客的感觉和知觉能力,采用动态比较过程和预测决策过程来模拟乘客的出口选择和出口变换行为.以某地铁车站站台层为场景分析乘客的感知和判断能力对出口选择、出口变换行为及疏散效果的影响.仿真结果表明:模型参数可以有效调节乘客的出口选择和出口变换行为,进而影响疏散结果.当车站视野不佳或乘客偏好等待时,需要引导乘客从拥堵的出口到通畅的出口进行疏散;而当车站视野良好且乘客偏好走行时,需要引导乘客选择适当的出口,并在等待时多一些耐心.

Pedestrian exit selection behavior during evacuation process in a rail transit station is restricted by pedestrians＇ perceptual as well as cognitive abilities. Moreover, pedestrian may re-select the exit according to his or her current position and the real-time exit conditions. To simulate these behaviors, a dynamic exit selection model is presented. A perceptual parameter and a series of cognitive coefficients are introduced in the model to reflect pedestrians＇perceptual and cognitive level. Besides, two subjective evacuation time computing approaches are proposed to simulate pedestrians＇ exit selection and re-selection behavior. A scenario of a station platform is built. A number of simulation experiments are run to study the effect of pedestrians＇ perceptual parameter and cognitive coefficients on total evacuation time. The results show that the total evacuation time is sensitive to model parameters, furthermore, exit selection and re-selection behaviors can be modeled. It is found that when pedestrians can perceive only a few exits or pedestrians prefer waiting, the station staff should guide pedestrians who evacuate from the crowded exit to use the unobstructed exitl whereas when pedestrians can perceive enough exits and they prefer walking, measures should be taken to help them to choose a rational exit and let them wait a bit longer in front of the exit.