政策不确定性与企业投资——基于战略性新兴产业的实证研究

Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Investment:An Empirical Study on Strategic and Emerging Industry

围绕战略性新兴产业政策制定、实施并将产生何种影响所引发的一系列不确定性预期,以战略性新兴产业相关企业为研究样本,分别从省际层面和公司层面,实证检验政策不确定性对企业投资行为的影响。研究发现政策不确定性加剧了企业融资约束预期,改变了企业经营环境,显著降低了企业投资。进一步发现,政策不确定性对企业投资的负向影响随企业融资约束程度以及市场化环境不同而不同。融资约束预期越高以及所处市场化环境较差的企业,受政策不确定性影响投资降低越显著。

Based on the series of uncertainty anticipations triggered by strategic and emerging industrial policy about how the policy would be set, how it would be put into effect, and how the impacts would be, and taking the strategic and emerging industry related corporations as samples, the paper does an empirical study on how policy uncertainty affects the investment behavior of the related corporations from province level and corporate level. The results show that policy uncertainty intensifies the anticipation of financial constraints faced by the corporation, and changes the corporate business environment, which all reduce corporate investment significantly. Further, the magnitude of the negative effects varies with different magnitude of financial constraints and marketization. The higher the anticipation of financial constraints and the inferior of the marketization, the stronger the negative effects are.