中国石油进口贸易联系稳定性测度——对1992-2012年经验数据的考察

Stability on Imports Relationship of Oil: Evidence from China in 1992-2012

中国石油进口贸易联系的稳定性问题,已成为影响海外石油可持续供应,保障国家能源安全的重要基础。本研究选取中国1992-2012年HS6石油产品进口数据,采用生存分析模型对贸易联系持续期进行测度,在此基础上引入Cox比例风险模型、Weibull模型及Exponential模型,对影响因素进行总体分析与解释,进一步通过区分产品类型、时间段、进口来源地角度进行实证比较分析。结果表明:中国石油进口贸易的持续期普遍较短,在近二十余年中平均值为2.97年,中值仅为1年,主要由于国家特征、产品特征变量导致,因此政府需采取更具系统性的具体政策加以应对。

The stability of China＇ s oil import trade relationship has become a key factor that influences the sustainable supply of overseas oil and also a key foundation for China＇ s energy security protection. In this paper we choose the oil imports data of HS6 from 1992 to 2012 and use survival analysis model to measure the duration of the trade links. Based on this analysis, we adopt Kaplan-Meier and Cox＇ s Proportional Hazard Model to explore the different factors of trade relationship stability and supplements including several fields such as products, time period and area analysis. The conclusion is that the duration of China＇ s oil import trade is generally short, as evi- denced by the average of 2.97 years and the median of only 1 years in the last twenty years. This is mainly, due to national characteristics and variable product characteristics, so the government should take more systematic and specific policies to cope with this problem.