摘要
中国大豆进口价格对进口结构变动的反应决定了国内大豆价格的稳定性及中国对大豆进口布局战略的选择。本文运用PTM模型,在单位根检验、F检验等统计检验的基础上,实证分析了进口结构变化对中国大豆进口价格的影响。研究结果表明,美国和巴西市场份额的提高有助于降低中国大豆进口价格水平,而阿根廷大豆市场份额的提高则会拉高中国的大豆进口价格。为了以更低的价格进口大豆,保证大豆进口的可获性及经济性,中国应继续保持美国和巴西市场,利用直接投资等措施促进阿根廷及其他具有生产潜力的国家生产大豆,同时通过技术支持等手段保护并培养国内大豆生产的竞争力。
Reaction of China＇ s soybean import prices to the changes of import structure determines the stability of domestic soybean prices. This paper makes an empirical analysis on the effects of import structure changes on China＇ s soybean import prices by PTM mod- el, based on unit root test, F test and other statistical tests. The results show that the increasing market share of U.S. and Brazil helps re- duce China＇ s soybean import prices, while Argentina＇ s improving share in soybean market tends to raise China＇ s soybean import prices. In order to import soybean at lower prices, China should continue to maintain U.S. and Brazil as its import source and on the other hands protect and promote domestic soybean production through technical support and other ways.
作者
林大燕
朱晶
Lin Dayan Zhu Jing(School of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Science and Technology, Nanjing 210094 Research Centre for International Economy and Trade, Nanjing University of Science and Technology, Nanjing 210094 China Center for Food Security Studies, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095 Jiangsu Center for Food Security Studies, Nanjing 210095)
出处
《管理评论》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第9期31-40,共10页
Management Review
基金
国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(71503127)
国家自然科学基金面上项目(71173111)
国家社会科学基金重大项目(14ZDA038)
关键词
进口价格
进口结构
不完全竞争
PTM模型
大豆
import price, import structure, imperfect competition, PTM model, soybean
