经济增长缓中趋稳,结构转型多维显现——2016年下半年中国宏观经济走势的分析与预测

Analysis and Forecast of China's Macro Economy in Second Half of 2016

自中国经济进入＂新常态＂以来,在去产能和市场预期走弱的影响下,中国制造业投资和民间投资走弱,但稳增长政策支撑基建投资实现较快增长,是稳定投资的关键。外需环境未见根本改善,2016年下半年出口或维持小幅负增长。消费稳中微升,新业态和房地产相关领域消费保持较快增长。CPI上行压力减小,PPI降幅持续收窄。预计2016年全年经济保持中高速平稳运行,当前出现L型运行拐点的可能性较大,结构转型在多个层面逐渐显现。

The author make a deep analysis on boosting China's economic 'troika',anil analyzes new problems of economic operation under the background of stabilized investment consumption and net exports declining steadily.The paper also points out that our country's economy running environment is improving and downward momentum of economic growth is expected to change in 2016 as continuous structure transformation.