人民币长期双边实际均衡汇率测算研究

A Study on the Measurement of RMB's Long-term Bilateral Real Equilibrium Exchange Rate

随着人民币国际化进程的加快,双边实际均衡汇率的重要性日益凸显.本文首先研究了我国同美、欧、日等国或地区间的双边实际汇率与相对劳动生产率之间的关系,结果表明两者存在长期稳定关系,巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应能够解释双边实际汇率的变动.在此基础上,构建了一个长期双边实际均衡汇率模型,并重点分析了人民币/美元长期实际均衡汇率及实际汇率错位问题.最后又基于贸易份额计算出长期实际均衡有效汇率指数,为研究均衡汇率提供了新选择.

With the accelerating process of RMB＇s internationalization,the bilateral real equilibrium exchange rate（BREER）is getting more and more important.In this paper,firstly we analyze the relationship between the bilateral real exchange rate（BRER）and the relative labor productivity,with China against the main suppliers of the international currencies.The result shows that there exists a long-term stable relationship and the BS Effect can explain the fluctuation of the BRERs.Secondly,the long-term BREERs are calculated by expanding the relative PPP and the RMB/Dollar＇s long-term BREER.And misalignment of BRER is analyzed.At last,to offer a new choice to study exchange rate problems,we construct the long-term real equilibrium effective exchange rate index based on the international trade share.