经济下行背景下城市商业银行跨区域经营研究

Research on Geographic Diversification of City Commercial Banks under the Background of Economic Downturn

笔者基于2009—2014年中国102家城市商业银行的数据,运用倍差法与面板门限回归等方法,分析了经济下行背景下跨区域经营对银行盈利能力、风险水平和综合绩效的影响。结果发现,在GDP增速放缓的前提下,跨区域经营有助于提升城市商业银行的收益水平,并且其盈利能力随着同业业务所占比重的上升而提高;总体而言,跨区域经营增加了城市商业银行的风险,但开展同业业务较多的银行的跨区域经营战略却起到了分散风险的作用;综合考虑银行的资本充足性、资产质量、管理水平、盈利能力和流动性等因素时,跨区域经营不利于城市商业银行绩效的提高,但上述现象在同业业务占比较高的银行中并不明显。笔者的研究为新常态时期城市商业银行跨区域经营的效果提供了经验证据,也为监管当局进一步完善相关政策法规提出了政策建议。

Based on data of 102 city commercial banks in China from 2009 to 2014,this paper analyzes the effects of geographic diversification on banks＇ return,risk and performance under the background of economic downturn using difference-in-differences method and panel threshold regression. We find that when the GDP growth slows down,geographic diversification helps to increase the return of city commercial banks,and the more the proportion of interbank business,the higher the profitability. Overall speaking,geographically diversified city commercial banks have higher risks,however,those with more interbank business diversify risks through cross regional operations. Considering city commercial banks＇ capital adequacy, asset quality,management,profitability and liquidity,geographic diversification is detrimental to the improvement of banks＇ performance. Nevertheless,the above phenomenon is not obvious in the banks with more interbank business.Our findings provide empirical evidences of the effect of geographic diversifications on city commercial banks during ＂New normal＂period,and policy recommendations for regulatory authorities to further improve the relevant regulations.