中国山洪灾害危险性评价

Assessment on the hazard of flash flood disasters in China

根据山洪灾害特点,对中国山洪灾害危险区进行了界定,并构建了中国山洪灾害危险性评价指标体系;采用可变模糊集方法对中国1 km×1 km分辨率山洪灾害危险性等级进行评价,分析了我国山洪灾害的空间分布特征。研究结果表明,我国约2/3国土面积可能受到山洪灾害威胁,山洪高危险性区域占国土面积的19.95%,极高危险区域占国土面积的3.92%。全国33个省级区域中,香港、福建、广西、贵州和重庆高危险区面积比例排在前5位,是山洪灾害高发区;浙江、湖北、四川等区域易受突发性小规模山洪灾害影响。研究结果客观反映了中国山洪灾害的分布特征,可为山洪灾害区划与风险分析提供科技支撑。

The hazard area of flash flood disaster in China was identified, and the assessment index wasproposed on the basis of the characteristics of flash flood disasters in this study. The variable fuzzy set mod-el was used to evaluate the hazard of flash flood disaster with 1km × 1km of resolution in China,and thespatial variation of hazard was analyzed. The results showed that hazard areas accounted for two thirds ofthe land area in China,in which the high-hazard areas of flash flood disasters accounted for 19.95%,andthe extremely high hazard areas accounted for 3.92%. The top five provinces with great ratios of high-haz-ard areas among the 33 provinces（cities,autonomous regions） in China are Hong Kong,Fujian,Guangxi,Guizhou and Chongqing,which are all flash flood disaster-prone areas;Zhejiang,Hubei,Sichuan and oth-er areas are vulnerable to the impact of small-scale flood disasters. The result objectively reflected the spa-tial variation of flash flood in China and could provide scientific support for quantitative assessment of flashflood disasters and disasters regionalization.