水库溃坝洪水数值模拟及下游风险评价

Numerical simulation on dam failure flood and assessment on its downstream risk

以锦屏二级水库为例,利用DAMBRK和一维水动力模型模拟多种组合工况下水库溃坝和洪水演进过程,并对计算得到的溃口流量及下游洪水演进结果进行分析。根据溃坝洪水模型计算获得的水库下游地区洪水淹没情况,综合考虑洪水的危险性、暴露性和易损性,利用模糊综合评价法对水库下游8个重要乡镇进行了洪水风险评价,评价结果可以为该流域进行安全应急预案制定、洪水灾害风险管理等提供技术参考。

By taking Jinping II Reservoir as the study case, the dam failure and flood routing process under several operation conditions are simulated herein with DAMBRK and a 1 - D hydrodynamic model, and then the dam breach flow rate and the downstream flood routing result from the related calculation are analyzed. In accordance with the flood inundation of the downstream area of the reservoir obtained from the relevant dam failure flood model, the flood risk assessments are made on 8 important downstream towns of the reservoir with fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method under the comprehensive consideration of the hazards from flood, from which the assessment result can provide technical references for making the safety emergency response plan and managing flood disaster risk for the river basin concerned.