计及检修过程随机性影响的断路器检修决策方法

Circuit breaker maintenance strategy considering influence of maintenance process randomness

断路器单次检修过程受各方面因素影响,具有一定随机性,尚无较准确的方法描述这一随机性。通过分析单次检修随机性与剩余无故障工作时间之间的关系,建立计及检修过程随机性影响的断路器平均剩余无故障工作时间模型,用以反映检修后断路器可靠性水平。计算断路器单次检修后平均剩余无故障工作时间作为下一个检修优化区间,以检修优化区间内预防性检修费用、故障检修费用和停电损失之和最小为目标函数,制定综合考虑可靠性与经济性的检修策略。通过分析断路器检修退出后剩余系统风险与断路器继续运行对系统潜在风险的贡献度,提出断路器检修紧迫度概念来确定多台断路器在同一时间段检修的检修顺序。最后,以IEEE-RBTS进行算例分析,验证了所提方法的可行性和有效性。

Affected by various factors,a maintenance process of circuit breaker has certain randomness,which cannot be accurately described. The relationship between the single maintenance randomness and the remained faultless time is analyzed and an MTTF（Mean Time To Failure） model considering the influence of maintenance process randomness is established to reflect the reliability of circuit breaker after maintenance. The calculated MTTF of circuit breaker after maintenance is taken as the optimization period for next maintenance and with the minimal sum of preventive maintenance cost,fault maintenance cost and outage cost as its objective function,a maintenance strategy considering both reliability and economy is developed. The system risk induced by the quitting out of circuit breaker for maintenance and the potential system risk by its continuous operating are analyzed and a concept of circuit breaker maintenance urgency is proposed,which is used to determine the maintenance sequence for several circuit breakers to be maintained in same period. A case analysis for IEEE-RBTS verifies the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method.