中国大陆足迹家族的环境库兹涅茨曲线分析

Environmental Kuznets Curve Analysis of the Footprints Family in China's Mainland

论文选取我国1987—2013年土地利用、温室气体排放和用水量数据,运用投入产出法计算足迹家族中的土地足迹、碳足迹和水足迹,采用纵横向拉开档次法进行足迹整合,将整合得到的足迹综合指数与足迹家族各项指标取对数后进行环境库兹涅茨曲线分析。计算结果表明:足迹综合指数从1987年的2.274 2增长到2013年的3.816 9,与人均GDP呈平缓型曲线协同增长关系,说明生态占用持续增加,呈现资源利用的不可持续性;土地足迹、碳足迹与水足迹的环境库兹涅茨曲线分别呈∽型、协同增长型以及平稳型,说明我国城镇化正在进入转型期,碳排放仍处于上升阶段,水资源可持续性不乐观,指标的选取影响环境库兹涅茨曲线形态。

This article selected the data of land use, greenhouse gas emissions and water consumption in China during 1987- 2013 to calculate the land footprint, carbon footprint and water footprint of the footprints family using the Input-output Method, and then integrated the footprints by the Vertical and Horizontal Deviation Maximization Method, and analyzed Environmental Kuznets Curve of the footprints synthesis index and the indicators of footprints family. The results showed that the footprints synthesis index changed from 2.274 2 in 1987 to3.816 9 in 2013, which had the tendency of ascending. The footprints synthesis index had gental curve relationship with per capita GDP, showing the increasing of the ecological occupancy and the less sustainability of resource utilization. The Environmental Kuznets Curve of land, carbon and water footprints were respectively in ∽- curve, coordinated growth curve,and flat curve, which shows the entering to transition period of urbanization, the rising period of carbon emissions and the non- sustainability of water resources in China. The selection of indicators has impact on the shape of the Kuznets Curve.