人民币汇率中间价市场化改革的成效及挑战——写在“8·11汇改”一周年之际

A review of the pros and cons of the market-oriented reform of RMB reference exchange rate——Witten on the anniversary ceremony of "8.11 exchange rate reform"

"8·11汇改"标志着人民币汇率市场化改革迈出重大步伐,并取得阶段性胜利。既补上了相对滞后的人民币汇率中间价改革"短板",也有力促进人民币加入SDR货币篮子。但是,在经济增速放缓的背景下,"8·11汇改"使得一些问题显性化。如加剧"稳增长"与"稳汇率"矛盾、"保汇率"与"保储备"的矛盾,新汇率形成机制在外汇市场无法出清时出现易贬难升现象。为确保汇改顺利进行,短期内应采取多种措施稳定人民币汇率;从长远来看,更重要的是摆正汇率政策定位,让汇率涨跌趋于常态化。

8.11 exchange rate reform shows the market-oriented reform of RMB reference exchange rate（RER）taking great strides,and getting stage victories.It is not only making up the relative backward reform of RER,but also spurring up the RMB to join the SDR currency basket.At the same time,with economic growth slowing,some problems has appeared such as the contradiction of ＂steady growth＂and ＂steady exchange rate＂,the contradiction of ＂keeping exchange rate＂and ＂keeping foreign exchange reserves＂,and the new forex rate forming mechanism lead the RER easy devaluation rather than appreciation.To ensure the smooth reform of the RER,various measures should be taken to stabilize the RMB exchange rate in the short time.In the long run it is important to adjust the exchange rate policies and normalize the exchange rate fluctuations.