条件平差法水量平衡计算研究

Calculating Annual Runoff by Condition Adjustment and Accuracy Assessment

针对河流上、下游水文站实测径流量水量不平衡问题,提出利用最小二乘法条件平差模型进行平差计算,并论述了最小二乘法的平差原理、条件平差法计算年径流量的数学模型及推导计算过程。通过对黄河下游花园口-利津6个水文站8年年径流量及区间水量变化量的实际观测数据进行实算,证明利用条件平差法可以消除各水文测站实测年径流量及相邻测站区间水量变化量之间的矛盾,使各站实测年径流量与区间水量变化量在空间和年际分布上达到水量平衡,并给出科学的精度评定,使平差后的年径流数值更可靠、实用。

According to the imbalance problem of the observed upstream and downstream annual runoff data, this paper put forward the conditional adjustment calculation method using the least square condition adjustment model, and discussed the principle of the least square method, the mathematical model and the deduction calculation process of the annual runoff data by conditional adjustment method. By the calculation results of the 8 -year observed annual runoff data and the water change amount at the 6 hydrometry stations in the reach between the Huayuankou and Lijin hydrometry stations, it shows that the conditional adjustment can eliminate the contradiction between the annual runoff data of the various hydrometry stations and the water change amount of the adjacent hydromety stations, so as to achieve the special and yearly water amount balance, give the scientific accuracy assessment, and make the adjusted runoff data more reliable and practical.