三岔河上游近50年降水径流变化特征分析

Change Characteristics of Water Resources in Sanchahe Upstream over Past 50 Years

为分析黔中水利枢纽工程的水源区——三岔河上游的水资源演变规律,利用常规线性回归和滑动平均法、Pettitt法以及Morlet小波分析等方法,对该流域近50年降水和径流水资源要素进行趋势性、突变性和周期性等多维特征分析。研究表明:降水和径流整体减少或增加趋势不明显,但其丰枯年份交替频繁,起伏波动较大;突变检验结果显示该区水文序列均在2003年存在突变年份,且均为不显著性突变年份;Morlet小波周期性分析可以看出研究区水文序列都存在一个14a左右的周期变化。上述分析成果一定程度上可为该区域水资源开发提供依据。

In order to analyze the evolution of water resources in the Sanchahe upstream, the water source area of the Qianzhong Hydraulic Project, the conventional linear regression, moving average method, Pettitt method and Morlet wavelet analysis method were used to find out the trend, mutability and periodic multidimensional characteristics of the precipitation and runoff from 1963 to 2012. The results show that the overall changing trends of precipitation and runoff are not obvious, but the wet and dry years alternate frequently. Mutation test results show that all of the hydrological sequences have a mutation in the year 2003, but not significant. According to the Morlet wavelet analysis, all of the hydrological sequences can be found a change periodic about 14 years.