变化条件下常德市降水气温特征分析

Characteristics and Trend Analysis of Annual Precipitation and Mean Temperature in Changde City under Changing Environment

基于1968-2012年常德站降水量及平均气温资料,采用一元线性回归、九点二次平滑、MannKendall检验、Yamamoto法、Morlet小波分析研究了常德市降水量和气温序列的趋势、突变、周期特征,运用R/S分析法计算得Hurst指数预测了两者未来的变化趋势。结果表明,近45年常德市年降水量呈略微上升趋势,未发生突变,降水序列存在6a、15a和28a三个周期,在未来年降水量有增加趋势;近45年常德市年平均气温呈明显升高趋势（显著性水平α=0.01）,在1994年发生突变,气温序列存在28a的主周期,在未来年平均气温有升高趋势。

Based on the precipitation and mean temperature series in Changde City from 1968 to 2012, one -dimensional linear regression, Nonuple -Quadratic -Smooth filters, Mann -Kendall test, Yamamoto method and Morlet wavelet analysis were used to analyze the trend, abrupt change, periodicity of precipitation and temperature series, and then Hurst index were calculated using R/S analysis method to do some prediction of the change trend. The results show that the annual precipitation have a slightly increasing trend, no abrupt change was found in this series; it has 3 periods of 6, 15 and 28 years, and the precipitation will increase in the future; while the annual mean temperature appeared significantly rising trend at the 0.01 significance level, the abrupt change happened in 1994; temperature series have a primary period of 28 years ,and the temperature will rise in the future.