气候变化下海河流域未来水资源演变趋势

Future Evolution Trends of Water Resources in Haihe River Basin under the Climate Change

气候变化将对水资源产生重要影响,评估气候变化对水资源的影响可为区域可持续发展提供重要依据。海河流域是我国水资源供需矛盾最为突出的地区之一。本研究的目标是评估气候变化对海河流域未来2021—2050年水资源的可能影响。基于IPCC AR5的7个全球气候模式在3种排放情景（RCP2.6、RCP4.5及RCP8.5）下的资料驱动可变下渗容量模型,模拟了海河流域未来水资源的变化情势。结果表明：可变下渗容量模型在海河流域具有较好的适应性,率定期和检验期的水量相对误差Er都控制在±5%以内,各站月径流过程的Nash-Sutcliffe模型效率系数NSE达到0.70以上,日径流过程的NSE达到0.60以上;与1961—1990年基准期相比,未来2021—2050年海河流域水资源将呈现略微增加的趋势,其中流域北部水资源的增加趋势更为明显,滦河及冀东沿海和海河北系的增幅分别为1.52%-10.40%和2.72%-10.62%,徒骇马颊河水系在不同情景下预估的水资源各有增减,预估结果的不确定性较大。未来海河流域水资源短缺的问题尚不能得到根本性改变,仍需通过加强水资源综合管理来应对。

Climate change will have an important impact on water resources, and assessing the impact of climate change on water resources can provide an important basis for regional sustainable development. Haihe River Basin is the most prominently region in contradiction between water supply and demand. The objective of this paper is to assess the probable impact of climate change on water resources from 2021 to 2050 in Haihe River Basin. Based on the data of 7 GCMs with three emissions scenarios （RCP2.6, RCP4. 5 and RCP8.5） from IPCC AR5 and variable infiltration capacity （VIC） model, the situation changes of water resources in the future over Haihe River Basin are simulated and analyzed. The results show that VIC model has a good ability to simulate the hydrological process over Haihe River Basin. The monthly discharge process are effectively simulated by the VIC model, and the water balance errors between simulated and recorded discharges for typical hydrometric stations are less than 5% , while Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients of daily and monthly discharge simulation are beyond 0. 60 and 0. 70 respectively. Compared with the base period from 1961 to 1990 , the water resources of the coastal of Luanhe and Jidong and the north of Haihe River Basin from 2021 to 2050 may increase by 1.52% -1 0 . 4 0 % and 2. 72% -10. 62% . The resources of Tuhaimajia River Basin show different change results under different emission scenarios with a big uncertainty. Water shortage in Haihe River Basin will still exist in the future. Water intergrade management should be enhanced continually in this region in order to adapt the various climate and human activity.