摘要
为避免我国沿海城市遭受洪涝灾害侵袭,保证广州市可持续发展,利用8种气候模式数据集和4种排放情景(A1B,RCP2.6,RCP4.5,RCP8.5)对广州市未来时期(2020—2050年)的极端降雨和气温变化趋势进行了预估,基于海平面变化与温度变化的相关关系对海平面进行了上升预测,构建了基于Copula函数的历史与未来时期广州市雨潮遭遇风险概率模型,分析了未来时期不同排放情景下雨潮遭遇概率的变化趋势。分析结果表明,未来时期极端降雨与海平面均将呈现上升趋势,治涝风险概率将呈现增加趋势,表明广州市城区未来将会面临更大的防洪压力。
A combined probability model was developed to evaluate the impact of climate change （2020-2050） on flood in Guangzhou City by using 8 kinds of climate models with 4 kinds of emission scenarios （ A1B , RCP2. 6 , RCP4. 5 , RCP8. 5 ） , namely, Special Report on Emissions Scenario （SRES） scenario A1B, representative concentration pathway（RCP） scenarios RCP2. 6, RCP4. 5 and RCP8. 5. The sea level rise is predicted based on the correlation between sea level changes and temperature changes. Then, a storm surge risk probability model of history and future in Guangzhou City based on the Copula function is built, and the change trend of storm surge probability of different emission scenarios in the future is analyzed. The results show： in the future, both the extreme rainfall and sea level will show a rising trend; similarly, risk probability of flood control shows an increasing trend; Guangzhou City will face greater pressure on flood control in the future.
出处
《华北水利水电大学学报（自然科学版）》
2016年第5期7-15,共9页
Journal of North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power：Natural Science Edition
基金
广东省科技计划项目(2016A020223003)
广东省水利科技创新项目(2016-32)
广州市水务科技项目(GZSW-20140)
关键词
气候变化
气候模式
治涝风险概率
广州市
climate change
climate model
waterlogging control risk probability
Guangzhou City
