摘要
为了研究气候变化对径流变化的影响,选择了浙江省钱塘江流域支流兰江作为研究区域,以1971—2000年为基准期,以2071—2100年为预测期,结合统计降尺度方法的LARS-WG天气发生器和CMIP5模型,利用分布式水文模型SWAT,计算和分析了兰江流域未来径流可能变化的情况。研究结果表明,在气候变化影响下,兰江流域未来的径流总量增加的概率较大,同时夏季发生洪水的频率也将有所增加。
In order to analyze the change of climate on runoff, taking Lanjiang tributary of Zhejiang Qiantang River as a study area, se-lected a reference period from 1971 to 2000 , selected a forecast period from 2017 to 2100 , combined with LARS-WG and CMIP5 models of statistical downscaling methods, a distributed hydrological model of SWAT is used to calculate and analyze the possible changes of future runoff in Lanjiang basin. The results show that under the influence of climate change,it is very likely that the total amount of future runoff in Lanjiangbasin will increase, and at the same time the frequency of summer floods will also increase.
出处
《华北水利水电大学学报（自然科学版）》
2016年第5期22-27,共6页
Journal of North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power：Natural Science Edition
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51379183)
科技部国际合作项目(2010DFA24320)
