极端灾害天气对港口锚地的影响研究——以河北秦皇岛港为例

Study on the Influence of Extreme Weather Disasters on Harbor Anchorages——Taking Hebei Qinhuangdao Port as an Example

当前全球变暖趋势愈发明显,极端天气出现的概率以及强度都不断提升。诸多极端天气都影响了沿海地区的发展。以河北秦皇岛港口为例,采用综合干旱指数、EMD分解、回归分析等方法,探讨秦皇岛港区的极端天气灾害特征及其对港口锚地的影响。研究结果表明:1秦皇岛港区历年干旱发生频率约为48%,春季干旱发生频率在45%左右,四季中春旱发生频率最高。近60年以来,秦皇岛港区的干旱持续时间和干旱强度虽存在明显的年际波动,但线性变化趋势不明显。2秦皇岛港区年降水量总体来说振幅逐渐变小,而平均周期由短变长。暴雨序列与年降水量序列周期对应关系较好,准6年周期是秦皇岛港区暴雨灾害的主周期。3极端天气因子中高温天数、年均降水量以及大雨天数为主要影响因子,会影响秦皇岛港货物吞吐量,且均与吞吐量呈负相关。

At present,the trend of global warming is becoming more and more obvious,the probability of extreme weather and the intensity are rising. Many extreme weathers have influenced the development of coastal areas. Taking Hebei Qinhuangdao port as an example and by using the comprehensive drought index,EMD decomposition,regression analysis and other methods,characteristics of extreme weather disasters in Qinhuangdao port and the influence of the disasters on port of anchorages are discussed. Research results show that： 1The frequency of drought in Qinhuangdao port area over the years is about 48%,spring drought occurrence frequency at about 45%,the four seasons spring drought occurrence frequency is the highest. In the recent 60 years,the drought duration and drought intensity of Qinhuangdao port area have obvious inter annual fluctuation,but the trend is not obvious.2The annual precipitation in Qinhuangdao port area is generally smaller,and the average period is shorter and longer. The corresponding relationship between the rainstorm series and the annual precipitation series is better,and the quasi 6 year period is the main period of the rainstorm disaster in Qinhuangdao port area. 3The number of high temperature days,average annual precipitation and heavy rain days are the main factors influencing the cargo throughput of Qinhuangdao port,and it is negatively correlated with the throughput.