宁沪高速公路雾事故特征及雾危险指数研究

Study on Fog Accident Characteristics and Fog Risk Index of Nanjing Shanghai Expressway

统计了2008-2015年宁沪高速公路上由雾造成的交通事故92起,分析了雾事故与雾发生频率之间的关系,研究发现,雾事故易发生于秋冬季,而冬季由于路面摩擦系数较低更易出现事故;经过比较,能见度低于100 m的条件下雾事故发生概率较大;早晨6-8时为雾事故发生的高峰期,这与此时段雾发生频率较高及车流量加大有关;宁沪高速的西段为雾事故及雾发生频率较高的路段;分析了雾事故发生时的能见度与湿度、温度和风速的关系;利用能见度区间,雾日变化特征,摩擦系数及雾站点覆盖率制定了宁沪高速雾危险指数NHFI,并利用Spearman秩相关系数法分别比较了NHFI,雾日数与雾事故数的相关性,结果显示NHFI评价路段危险性要比单纯用雾日数更合理和精确。通过利用数值模式计算每段路的NHFI可以预测宁沪高速危险指数及危险路段分布。

The paper statistics 92 traffic accidents caused by fog from 2008 to 2015 on Ninghu expressway.The relationship between fog accidents and fog occurrence frequency is analyzed. It＇s found that the fog accidents often occurred in autumn and winter,and due to the low friction coefficient of road is more prone to accidents in winter. By comparison,when the visibility less than 100 m,it has greater probability of occurrence of fog accidents. It is the peak of fog accident in the morning from 6 to 8,which is related to the higher frequency of fog at this time and increase of vehicle flow. Fog accidents and the high frequency of fog occurrence appear on the west of Ninghu expressway. By using the visibility range,characteristics of fog days variation,friction coefficient and fog site coverage on Ninghu make the fog hazard index NHFI. And using the Spearman rank correlation coefficient method compares the correlation between the number of fog days and the number of fog accidents with the NHFI.The result shows that the NHFI evaluate the risk of road sections is more reasonable and accurate than the fog days.By using the numerical model calculates NHFI of each section of the expressway could predict the risk index and the distribution of dangerous road sections on Ninghu expressway.