高速铁路突发事件-资源关联测度方法

Association Method for High Speed Railway Emergency-Resource

为提高应对高速铁路突发事件的资源保障能力,从突发事件-资源关联视角,建立了高速铁路突发事件和应急资源的分类体系,提出了高速铁路突发事件-资源的关联强度和关联结构测度方法。结果表明,高速铁路突发事件-资源间的相互关系受事件类型、持续时间、波及范围、等级与强度、发生概率等影响,可综合运用致灾因子、事件因子、救援能力承载因子进行强度测度;相似度理论和案例推理方法有利于揭示事故类型、等级、波及范围、所在区域救援能力与资源需求量和结构间相互关系,可用于确定不同高速铁路突发事件下不同类型的资源量和比例结构;将既有线铁路、城市地铁的历史数据/案例推广到高速铁路,可弥补现有突发事件样本数不足,扩大基于案例推理/规则推理的应用范围,提高高速铁路突发事件资源需求测度的可靠性和准确性。

In order to strengthen the guarantee capacity of resources for responding to High-speed railway emergency incidents,this paper tries to establish the classification system of high speed railway emergency and emergency resource and put forward the association method for high speed railway emergency-resource. It shows that the relationship between high speed railway emergency-resource is influenced by incident type,duration,sweeping scale,grade or strength,probability of occurrence which can measure based on causal factor,event factor and assistance bearing ability factor. By using the similarity theory and case-based reasoning method,the relationship between the type,grade,strength,scope of emergency accidents and rescue capabilities can be scientifically revealed; the amount and proportion of resources of all kinds of high-speed railway emergency accidents can be calculated. If the historical data / case of existing line and urban mass transit railway can promoted to high speed railway,the lack of limit samples can be compensated. If the range of applications based on case-based reasoning / rules can enlarge,the scientific and the accuracy of high-speed railway emergency-resources association can be improved.