全球贸易增速为何低于经济增速?

How to Treat the Phenomenon of Global Trade Growth below Economic Growth

当前包括中国在内的全球贸易增速下降乃至低于经济增长速度,与全球价值链分工演进趋势放缓有关,即价值链分工演进到一定阶段后庞大的基数效应和微弱的边际效应,必然表现为贸易增速放缓。从更深层次的原因看,实际上是经济长周期作用规律下,前一轮科技革命和以边境开放为主要表现的制度变革所推动的分工演进动力机制衰竭所致。因此,在全球经济深度调整的特殊时期,诸如贸易保护、需求减弱,以及经济与贸易的"结构性偏离"等因素,透过上述基本理论逻辑力量,最终导致贸易增速低于经济增速。从上述意义看,中国外贸增速下滑既有自身传统比较优势弱化原因,也有着全球经济和分工深刻调整和变化的客观背景。据此,中国外贸发展欲尽早"破茧而出",必须依托技术创新能力的提升以及在新一轮全球经济规则制定中增强话语权,以夯实中国外贸转型发展的基础,在增创新优势的同时,也为努力改善全球贸易环境,进一步推进贸易自由化和便利化作出中国应有的贡献。

Global trade growth rate including China dropped even lower than the rate of eco- nomic growth, and this phenomena results from slowing down trend of global value chain evolution. Namely when global value chain progress to a certain stage, huge base together with weak marginal effect leads to trade growth slow down. From a deeper vision, in fact, under the law of the long peri- od of economic development, the motive mechanism resulting from first round of scientific and tech- nological revolution has become weaker. Therefore, in the special period of global economic adjust- ment, the factors such as trade protection, weak demand, and economic trade ＂structural deviation＂ from economic structure, result in the phenomena that trade is lower than the growth rate of economic growth through the above logical mechanism. From the above perspective, China＇ s foreign trade growth slow not only because its own traditional comparative advantages is becoming weaker, but also it confronts a profound adjustment of the global economy and changes in GVC. Accordingly, the development of Chinese foreign trade as soon as possible to ＂breakthrough＂, must rely on the promotion of technological innovation ability and enhance the right to speak in a new round of global economic rules, so as to lay a solid foundation for the transformation of foreign trade development and create new advantages.