摘要
文章根据1998-2014年我国制造业省级层面数据,通过多部门增长核算法研究了全国及各地区制造业的劳动与资本配置结构效应。实证结果表明我国制造业存在着一定程度的要素配置结构效应,且要素配置结构效应从2004年开始逐步由"结构红利"转变为"结构负利"。在分地区的研究中发现:东北地区劳动与资本要素配置结构效应均变为负值,制造业不断衰落,河北与山西有可能会重蹈东北地区的覆辙;东部沿海地区要素配置结构效应总体呈下降趋势,重庆的要素配置结构效应走势趋近于东部沿海地区;中部和西南地区要素配置结构效应类似,两者总体均呈下降的趋势且滞后于东部沿海地区;西北地区要素配置结构效应较小,没有明显的趋势。
This paper, based on the provincial panel data of China＇s manufacturing industry from 1998 to 2014, studies thestructural effect of labor and capital allocation of manufacturing industry in China and its all regions by means of multi sectorgrowth accounting method. The results show that Chinese manufacturing industry has a certain degree of structural effect, andthe structural effect of factor allocation has changed from＂structural bonus＂to＂structural negative profit＂since 2004. The re-sults we find in the sub regional study are： The structural effect of labor and capital allocation of manufacturing industry innortheast China is becoming negative, manufacturing industry is going to decline in this region, the provinces of Hebei andShanxi may repeat the mistakes made in northeast China. The structural effect of factor allocation in eastern coastal regionsshows a downward trend, the development of Chongqing area has a tendency to move closer to the eastern coastal area. Thestructural effect of factor allocation in the central and southwest regions is very similar, both of them show an upward trend ingeneral and lag behind the eastern coastal areas. The structural effect of factor allocation in northwest region is so small thatthere is no obvious trend.
出处
《华东经济管理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第10期1-7,186,共7页
East China Economic Management
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目(13&ZD156)
关键词
要素配置结构效应
地区差异
制造业
structural effect of factor allocation
regional differences
manufacturing industry
