城镇化土地集约利用潜力空间分异研究——基于土地城镇化的“人口-经济”二元驱动视角

A Study on Spatial Differentiation of Land Intensive Use Potential— Based on the Perspective of“Population-Economy”Dual Driving Mode of Land Urbanization

文章基于地理加权回归模型,采用我国省域人口、经济与土地数据,从"人口-经济"二维驱动视角对土地城镇化驱动作用及土地集约利用潜力空间特征进行了研究。GWR模型分析结果显示,非农产业增加值每增加1%,城镇建成区面积增加0.60到0.64个百分点,城镇人口每增加1%,城镇建成区面积增加0.24到0.27个百分点,人口-经济对土地城镇化的驱动作用具有空间性特征。基于驱动作用的土地集约利用潜力分区结果表明,南方地区经济城镇化对土地耗用要大于北方地区,北方地区人口城镇化对土地的耗用要高于南方地区。因此,城镇化土地集约利用潜力挖掘需要根据潜力方向实施差异化策略,北方地区应关注人口城镇化过程中土地的集约利用与内部潜力释放,南方地区应侧重于经济发展中土地的集约利用与内部潜力挖掘,同时还应注意人口-经济-土地城镇化的均衡增长,只有人口、经济、土地城镇化协调发展、良性互动,才能实现城镇化的持续健康发展。

The paper makes the study on the driving function of land urbanization and spatial characteristics of land intensiveutilization using GWR model, based on the data of population, economy and land in China. The study finds that if value-addedof the non-agricultural industries increased by 1%, urban built-up area increased by 0.60-0.64%. Each increase of 1% urbanpopulation, urban built-up area has increased 0.24-0.27%. Urban-land intensive utilization potential is of spatial differentia-tion. The results of land intensive use potential zoning which are based on the driving role show that： Land consumption of eco-nomic urbanization in southern regions is greater than that in northern regions, land consumption of population urbanization innorthern regions is higher than that in southern regions. Therefore, the potential mining of land intensive use should implementdifferentiation strategy based on the direction of potential zoning. Northern regions should focus on the intensive use of landand releasing of internal potential in the process of population urbanization, southern regions should focus on the intensive useof land in economic development and mining of land internal potential. Moreover, it should be noted that the balanced growthof population-economy-land urbanization, the sustainable and healthy development of urbanization can only be achieved bypopulation urbanization, economy urbanization and land urbanization keeping coordinated development and positive interac-tion.