我国区域能源消费、经济增长及对外贸易动态关系研究

Research on the Dynamic Relationship between Energy Consumption,Economic Growth and International Trade in Different Regions of China

我国能源消费情况存在区域差异,文章从能源产品消费量的角度运用面板聚类模型将我国30个省、市、自治区划分为四类区域,并基于分类结果探究不同区域的能源消费、经济增长及对外贸易之间的动态关系。区域分析有助于客观地识别区域内及区域间各变量动态关系的异同。分析结果表明:四类区域的能源消费对对外贸易的影响都比能源消费对经济增长的影响更显著,即动态传导机制从能源消费到对外贸易体现的更突出;同时,四类区域的经济增长和对外贸易指标均在能源消费被施加冲击的反应初期呈现最大波动,其中高能源消费区的波动没有其他三类显著;中低能源消费区的经济增长对能源消费冲击最敏感。当经济增长和对外贸易受到正向冲击时,低能源消费区的能源消费指标反应强度高于其他区域;对次高能源消费区来说,经济增长和对外贸易对能源消费的传导效果一致。

As regional differences exist in energy consumption in China, this paper divides 30 provincial-level administrativeareas into four types of regions by establishing panel cluster analysis from the point of consumption of energy products, and an-alyzes the dynamic relationship between energy consumption, economic growth and international trade based on the classifica-tion. The regional analysis is helpful to identify the differences and similarities of the dynamic relationship of variables withinand between regions. The results show that the effect from energy consumption to international trade is more significant thanthe effect from energy consumption to economic growth in four regions, which means the dynamic transmission from energyconsumption to international trade is more prominent; Also, the impulse response of economic growth and international trade toenergy consumption show the maximum fluctuation in the initial reaction, and the fluctuation of the high energy consumptionarea is not significant than others; The economic growth in the medium-low energy consumption area is most sensitive to theshock from energy consumption. When a unit shock puts on the economic growth and international trade, the energy consump-tion in low energy consumption area exhibits more obvious than other areas; As for sub-high energy consumption area, thetransmission effect from economic growth and international trade to energy consumption is consistent.