新建内河航道货运量预测研究

Estimation Research on Freight Volume of New Inland Waterway

结合小清河复航工程实例,根据腹地经济发展、交通运输结构等特点,首先通过产销平衡法初步预测小清河货运量,再采用货源调查法进一步预测小清河分货种货运量,通过综合分析得到小清河水平年总货运量。采用这种定量计算与定性分析相结合的方法预测结果较为合理,成果对缺乏历史数据的新建内河航道货运量预测有一定的参考价值。

By analyzing the waterway re-navigation project of Xiaoqing River, the economy development and transportation system of the hinterland, the freight volume of Xiaoqing River is firstly estimated by using the coordination method of supply and marketing. Then the volume of each specified cargo is further estimated by using goods supply investigation. The mean annual freight volume of Xiaoqing River is finally obtained by comprehensive analysis. The combination of qualitative analysis and quantitative calculation produces a reasonable estimated value. The research results serve as a certain reference for the estimation of freight volume of new inland waterways which lack historical data.