基于PESBR模型的岩溶地区城市水资源安全评价——以贵阳市为例

Safety assessment of urban water resources in Karst area based on PESBR model——a case study of Guiyang city

岩溶地区水资源短缺主要是由岩溶地貌发育,水资源可获取性差,利用难度大造成的。为合理评价喀斯特地区城市水资源安全水平,结合岩溶地区城市水资源利用特点,构建基于需水压力-工程性缺水-承载状态-生态基础-人为响应（PESBR）概念模型的岩溶地区城市水资源安全评价指标体系,采用模糊SPA模型对贵阳市2002~2014年水资源安全状况进行评价。研究表明：2002～2014年贵阳市水资源安全等级基本为临界安全（2008、2012、2014年除外）,等级关联度（H2）波动式上升明显,整体趋于较安全等级。城市生活用水比重、降水季节性差异、水库蓄水率是影响贵阳市水资源安全的重要驱动因子。因此,加强水利设施建设,优化用水结构,提高产业用水效率,降低人均生活用水量,缩小城市供需水缺口是保障贵阳市水资源安全的重要举措。SPA评价模型和PESBR指标体系适用性较强,评价结果客观,有助于丰富岩溶地区水资源安全评价模型。

The shortage of water resources in Karst area is mainly caused by the development of karst landform, poor availability of water resources and utilization of water resources. For reasonable evalua- tion of urban water resources security in Karst area, this paper combined with the characteristics of ur- ban water resources utilization in Karst area, and constructed the water security evaluation index system based on the water demand pressure -engineering water shortage -water bearing state -ecological ba- sis- anthropogenic response （PESBR）, then the fuzzy SPA model was used to evaluate the safety of water resources in Guiyang city from 2002 to 2014. The study showed that： From 2002 to 2014, the water resources security level was the critical safety in Guiyang city （except 2008/2012/2014）, and the level of correlation degree （ H2 ） increased significantly, the whole trend was to be more secure.The seasonal difference of water consumption and precipitation in urban life and reservoir water storage rate are the important driving factors to affect the water resources safety in Guiyang city. Therefore, to strengthen the construction of water conservancy facilities, optimize the structure of water industry, im- prove water efficiency, reduce the per capita living water consumption, reduce the city water supply and demand gap are important measures to protect the security of water resources in Guiyang city. The SPA evaluation model and PESBR index system is applicable, the evaluation results are objective. So, it can enrich the evaluation model of water resources security in Karst area.