人民币汇率对国内物价水平的传递效应研究

Research on the RMB Exchange Rate Pass-through Effect on the Domestic Price Level

文章将2001年1月至2016年6月的月数据分成两个子样本,建立结构VAR(SVAR)模型,考虑到各种宏观经济因素冲击,研析汇改前后人民币汇率对我国物价的传递效应,有三点结论:一是我国汇率变动对我国物价的传递效应有不完全性且汇改后汇率冲击对其影响更大。二是引入其他宏观冲击后,使得人民币汇率传递率更为明显。三是汇改之后加强了国内汇率变化对我国物价的传递效应。

Dated from January 2001 to June 2016,the data is divided into two sub- samples,and establish structures VAR（ SVAR） model,taking into account the impact of macroeconomic factors,to analyze the RMB exchange rate pass-through effect on prices in China before and after the reform. It concludes that there are three conclusions： firstly,the change of exchange rate pass-through effect on prices in China is not complete and after the reform of its exchange rate shocks greater impact. Secondly,after the introduction of other macro impact,the RMB exchange rate pass rate is more obvious. Thirdly,after the reform,the pass-through effects of exchange rate changes on domestic prices were strengthened.