经济发展战略、交通通达程度与全要素生产率

Economic Development Strategy,Transportation Attainability,and Total Factor Productivity

普遍认为,全要素生产率是经济增长的重要决定力量,而全要素生产率的发展又与国家的内外经济发展战略与交通基础设施建设的通达程度有关。现阶段将三者纳入到一个模型框架的研究,且缺乏对经济周期计划的考虑。采用动态面板数据的一阶差分GMM估计方法与面板数据的Driscoll和Kraay(1998)的模型方法分别研究中国2001-2014(长期)、5年计划(中期)与3年计划(短期)的我国内外经济发展战略、交通通达程度与全要素生产率发展的关系。研究发现,对外经济发展战略与交通通达性的提高,有利于外国先进技术的引进与模仿学习,有利于全要素生产率的发展,而对内经济发展战略与支持科技创新的战略由于缺乏持续性与连续性,对技术创新的支撑相对较弱,我国的基础设施建设效果尚未充分发挥,且缺乏自主知识创新。为此,提出了扩大对外开放与推进交通基础设施建设积极改善国内技术创新投资的持续性与连续性的政策启示。

Generally speaking, TFP is the determinant element of economic growth; its develop- ment is related with China＇s inner and outside economic development strategy, as well as with the transportation infrastructure＇s attainability. However, theoretical studies and empirical proofs few combine the three elements into a model framework, and lacks consideration of economic cy- cles and plans. Use dynamic panel data＇s first difference GMM evaluation method and panel data＇s Driscoll＆Kraay（1998 ） model method to study China＇s 2001-2014（long-run）, 5-year-plan （ mid-runl, and 3-year-plan（short-run） relationship concerning inner and outside economic de- velopment strategy, transportation attainability, and TFP. The results show that, the improve- ment of inner and outside economic development strategy and transportation attainability are ben- eficial to bringing in and imitating foreign advanced technology. They are also good for TFP＇s growth, but the inner economic development strategy and policies to support technology development due to lack of sustainability and continuity, can only weakly support tech innovation, and the infrastructure＇s effects are not fully played out and lack of serf owned technology innova- tion. Therefore put forward suggestions concerning strengthen opening up and infrastructure con- struction, thus to improve the sustainability and continuity of technology innovation.