基于蒙特卡洛法的煤层气资源量估算

Estimating Coal-bed Methane Resource Based on Monte Carlo Method

详细介绍了蒙特卡洛方法的数学原理和数学模型选取,并以中梁山南矿k1急倾斜煤层为例,分析拟合资源量参数的数学模型,最终应用蒙特卡洛法以含量为Beta PERT分布,煤厚为对数正态分布,面积为伽马分布的数学模型模拟中梁山南矿k1煤层煤层气资源量。蒙特卡洛法的计算结果提供了一定可信度下的煤层气储量期望值,特别是在急倾斜煤层中,可最大限度减少主观因素的影响,为煤层气的勘探开发提供客观、可靠、合理的储量值。

This paper expounds the mathematical theory of Monte Carlo method and the selection of mathematical model,and analyzes the mathematical model of fitting the parameters of resources by taking k1 steep inclined coal seam in the south of Zhonglianshang Coal Mine for example. The tests indicated that the gas content obeys Beta PERT distribution,coal thickness obeys lognormal distribution and gas-bearing area follows gamma distribution. Using the simulation parameters,we estimated gas reserves of k1 coal seam in Zhonglianshan South Mine. The calculation method provides a desired value of CBM reserve with a certain degree of credibility. Especially in the steep coal seam,it can reduces the impact of subjective factors to the maximum extent,and provide objective,reliable and reasonable reserve values.