我国城镇居民旅游消费影响因素的实证分析

An empirical analysis of the urban residents in China tourism consumption influencing factors

在经济刺激和人民需求的双重作用下,我国旅游业迅速发展,然而如何让旅游业对第三产业乃至整个国民经济产生更大的贡献,即如何增加我国的旅游消费需求,是我们应该注重的问题。选取城镇居民人均可支配收入、城镇居民消费价格指数、黄金周制度三个变量建立VAR模型,得出人均可支配收入与黄金周制度对旅游消费支出具有直接、长期持续的促进作用。并提出增加人均可支配收入、增强居民旅游消费观念、建立合理的假期制度等相关建议。

Under the dual role of economy stimulation and people＇s demand,the tourism in our country develops rapidly; however,how to make the tourism contribute more for the third industry and even the entire nation,namely how to increase tourism consumption demand in China,is what we should pay attention to. This urban per capita disposable income,urban consumer price index,＂golden week＂system are selected as variables to establish VAR model,it is concluded that per capita disposable income and the＂golden week＂system have direct and long lasting effect to tourism consumption expenditure. And the authors put forward to increase the per capita disposable income,improve residents＇ tourism consumption idea,and establish the reasonable holiday system.