基于系统动力学的区域技术创新与经济增长——以湖南省为例

Regional Technological Innovation and Economic Growth Based on System Dynamics—Taking Hunan Province as a Case

利用系统动力学因果联系、互相反馈特点,分析系统内部各个变量之间的因果反馈关系,从区域创新环境、区域创新载体、区域创新投入3个方面定义区域技术创新能力指数,并建立技术创新与区域经济增长的系统动力学模型,并利用湖南省2006—2013年数据进行模拟和仿真。研究发现:知识产权保护水平、教育投入和企业自主研发投入水平是影响区域技术创新的关键因素;而一味通过政府投入,盲目增加专利数量对于经济增长效果不明显。

This paper analyzes the system dynamics causal link,mutual feedback characteristics,based on the defined area of the impact indicators of technological innovation,analyzes the feedback causality relationship between the variables within the system,the establishment of technological innovation and regional economic growth system dynamics model. Regional innovation environment,regional innovation support and regional innovation inputs define three aspects of regional technological innovation capability index. The level of intellectual property protection in the innovation environment is introduced.As to innovation carrier we focus on innovation efficiency. The government inputs and businesses inputs are combined together. So compared to the previous studies,this paper has made a considerably larger breakthrough. The model uses the data in Hunan from the years of 2006 to 2013 to carry out simulation. The study concludes that： increasing the level of the protection of intellectual property,increasing the investment in education,strengthening independent research and increasing development investment can effectively improve efficiency of regional technology innovation and promote economic growth; blindly adding government investment,and increasing the number of patents for economic growth cannot bring obvious influence to economic growth.