水文序列变异对水库调度运行的影响研究

Effect of hydrological sequence variation on operation reservoir

以安康水库为研究对象,探讨水文序列变异对水库调度运行结果的影响。利用Mann-Kendall秩次检验法、有序聚类和累积距平3种方法诊断1950-2014年安康入库径流序列,并确定变异点;同时,建立发电量最大模型,利用遗传算法优化求解变异前、后径流序列的调度结果。结果表明:安康水库入库径流在1984年处发生变异,变异后序列径流呈现减小的趋势;对比变异前,电站在变异后运行过程中多年平均发电量和整体运行水位都呈现降低的趋势,桃汛期内水库水位是上升的趋势。该研究在水电站设计、水库运行等方面具有重要的应用价值。

Taking Ankang reservoir as the research object, this paper investigated the effects of hydrological sequence variation on the results of reservoir operation. It used 3 methods such as Mann - Kendall rank test method, sequential clustering and the anomalies accumulate method to diagnosis the runoff series in Ankang reservoir from 1950 to 2014 so as to determine the aberrance point and established the model of energy maximization, used Genetic Algorithm optimization to solve the reservoir operation results of two inflow runoff series before the aberrance point （ serious 1 ） and after aberrance point （ serious 2）. The results show that： the runoff in Ankang reservoir occurred variation in 1984, and then water yield of the variation sequences showed a decreasing trend; compared with the serious 1, the average electricity generation and the overall water level of Ankang reservoir has a decreasing trend in serious 2, but the water level is opposite in peach flood season. The result has great practical value for the design of hydropower station and the operation of reservoir and so on.