2013-2015年山东省淄博市布鲁菌病的空间自相关分析

Spatial autocorrelation analysis of brucellosis in Zibo of Shandong Province, 2013-2015

目的 分析淄博市2013-2015年布鲁菌病（简称布病）的空间分布特征及空间聚集性.方法 运用空间自相关分析方法,以乡镇为空间单位对淄博市布病监测数据进行分析,分析小尺度下淄博市布病的空间分布特征.结果 2013-2015年,全局Moran＇sⅠ系数均无统计学意义,不存在全局空间自相关性.局域Moran＇sI统计量显示,2013年淄博市布病发病率的高-高区域分布在辛店街道、将军路街道;2014年高-高区域分布在唐坊镇、金山镇、罗村镇、寨里镇、西河镇和龙泉镇;2015年高-高区域分布在王村镇.结论 淄博市布病发病存在局部的空间聚集性,发病热点的探测有助于淄博市布病区域化防控策略的制订.

Objective To explore the spatial distribution and spatial clustering of brucellosis in Zibo,2013-2015.Methods Spatial autocorrelation analysis was used to analyze the surveillance data of brucellosis at town level.Township as a spatial analysis unit,spatial distribution of brucellosis in small scale in Zibo City was analyzed.Results The global Moran＇s I indexes of brucellosis were not significantly different in 2013-2015.According to local Moran＇s Ⅰ statistic,the high-high regions were Xindian Street and Jiangjunlu Street in 2013.The high-high regions were Tangfang Town,Jinshan Town,Luocun Town,Zhaili Town,Xihe Town and Longquan Town in 2014.The high-high region was Wangcun Town in 2015.Condusions Our study has showed that the spatial distribution of brucellosis is local clustered in Zibo.The detection of hotspots could provide guidance for formulating regional prevention and control strategies.