服务贸易能够成为全球贸易增长新引擎吗?

Will Service Trade Become the New Engine of Global Trade Growth?

全球贸易增长面临巨大下行压力背景下,服务贸易愈发被理论和实践部门寄予带动全球贸易增长"新引擎"的厚望。而在全球价值链分工模式下,传统统计方法会"高估"货物贸易而"低估"服务贸易,容易形成"误判",即较之货物贸易而言服务贸易较低结构比重和较弱增长优势似乎还难以成为"新引擎"。然而,基于出口增加值的重新测算表明,目前服务的"真实出口"在全球贸易中不仅在比重上已与货物大体相当,而且在增速上表现出明显优势。因此,从纯粹出口增加值角度看,较高的结构比重和较明显的增长优势,预示着服务贸易成为全球贸易增长新引擎或是必然。

Global trade growth is facing tremendous downward pressure. Under this background, trade in services is increasingly expected to be the new engine of global trade growth by theoretical and practical departments. In the mode of global value chain division, traditional statistical methods may ＂overrate＂ trade in goods and ＂ undervalue＂ trade in services, easy to form a ＂ miscarriage of justice＂, namely compared with trade in goods, trade in services has a low structure proportion and a weaker growth advantage, which seems difficult to become a ＂ new engine＂. However, the recalculated result of the export value added service shows that the current ＂real export＂ of services in the global trade not only is roughly the same as that of goods in proportion, but also shows obvious advantages in growth. Therefore, the added value from the perspective of pure export structure, high proportion and obvious growth advantage indicates that the service trade has inevitably become the new engine of global trade growth.At present, China’s service trade development is still lagging behind the global average, but the trend is basically consistent with the global one and is faster in development momentum. Conforming to the new trend and seizing new opportunities to foster the new growth of Chinese foreign trade based on the broad angle of increasing export service value, China faces a broad space for development but also shoulders heavy responsibilities.