我国玉米进口的依赖性及来源分析——基于Armington模型

Analysis of the Dependence and Source of China's Corn Import Based on Armington Model

文章运用2008-2014年19个国家面板数据对国产玉米与进口玉米之间的阿明顿（Armington）弹性进行测算,结果表明我国与国际玉米间的品质依赖度较低、同质性较高、具有较高的替代性,因而在价格劣势的驱动下我国进口动机强烈。在此基础上,分析了我国玉米的主要进口来源,发现美国玉米的出口产出弹性常年小于1;前苏联国家则大于1并呈上升趋势,供给潜力较大;其他出口国大部分大于1,但占我国进口比重较小。提出的对策建议是,为保障我国玉米供给安全,应拓宽玉米进口来源,充分发挥与＂一带一路＂国家间贸易的潜力;调整玉米产业布局,推动玉米主产区规模化集约经营,降低生产成本,提高产品的国际竞争力。

According to the panel data of 19 countries from year 2008 to 2014,this paper calculates Armington elasticity between corn production and import.The results show that China＇s corn is rather homogeneous to that of international market, so their substitutability is significant. Driven by price spread at home and abroad, China has strong motivations to increase corn import. On this basis,it analyzes China＇s major trade partners and proposes suggestions to broaden import sources and improve international competitiveness.